Lines for Colts at Commanders
Lines via DraftKings · Snapshot Oct 1, 2026 · 2:23 PM PT — lines move, check your book. For information only. 21+.
The storylines
The 6:30 AM kickoff that matters
Set the alarm: the NFL's 2026 International Series opens at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with the Indianapolis Colts (1–2) facing the Washington Commanders (1–2) at 6:30 AM PT on NFL Network. Early London kickoffs have a reputation for sleepy, sloppy football — but this one has real stakes. Both teams finally won in Week 3, both sit at 1–2, and the math is unforgiving: the winner flies home at .500 with momentum and a manageable path, the loser at 1–3 with the season starting to slip through its fingers.
Two first wins, two opposite flavors
The Colts earned their first win the unglamorous way — a 19–17 grind over the Texans, sealed by a last-gasp field goal. It was the kind of victory that steadies a locker room: proof the formula works, that the close ones can fall your way. Washington's first win was the opposite — a 33–31 stunner over the defending champion Seahawks, the upset of Week 3, delivered with a backup quarterback and no apologies. One team won ugly and felt relief; the other won spectacularly and felt belief. London will show which feeling travels better.
Mariota's moment — or Daniels' return?
The game's central mystery is Washington's quarterback. Jayden Daniels dislocated his elbow in the Week 2 loss to Dallas, practiced this week, and is officially questionable — a designation that will hover over everything until inactives are announced. Daniels is the franchise, the dynamic second-year star the entire offense is built around. If he plays, Washington's ceiling rises dramatically. If he doesn't, it's Marcus Mariota again — and Mariota was superb against Seattle (294 yards, 4 TDs on the season), poised and precise in the biggest spot of his Commanders tenure. Either way, the Colts' pass rush gets a quarterback worth testing.
The line says Colts — and why
Indianapolis is favored by 3.5 with a 48.5 total, and the moneyline (-192 Colts, +160 Commanders) tells the same story: the market trusts the Colts' roster a little more. It's not hard to see why. Indianapolis has the better ground game with Jonathan Taylor, the more settled offensive identity under Shane Steichen, and a defense that travels. Washington has the better story — the Seattle upset, the quarterback intrigue — but stories don't cover spreads. The Commanders are 0–2–1 all-time in international games, and until a franchise proves it can handle the London trip, the points are the smart side.
What decides it: the turnover battle
London games have a way of turning on a single chaotic sequence — a tipped ball, a strip-sack, a special-teams blunder in an unfamiliar stadium — and both of these teams have lived on the edge of that chaos all season. The Colts' path is the cleaner one: run Taylor, protect the football, win the field-position grind, and let Washington's quarterback situation create the mistakes. The Commanders' path is the explosive one: generate pressure, force hurried throws, and turn one takeaway into the kind of short-field touchdown that decides 6:30 AM football. Whichever team finishes plus in turnover margin probably finishes 2–2.
Shane Steichen's road puzzle
The Colts are 0–1 on the road this season, and London is the strangest road trip in sports — the time zones, the disrupted routine, the week of practice in an unfamiliar rhythm. Steichen's formula is straightforward: lean on Jonathan Taylor, control the clock, keep Washington's offense on the sideline, and let the defense hunt. It's a plan built for ugly, low-possession football — exactly the kind of game that wins at 6:30 in the morning, 4,300 miles from home.
Terry McLaurin: the constant
Whatever happens at quarterback, Washington has Terry McLaurin — the steady, professional, uncoverable chain-mover who has been the offense's backbone through every era of Commanders turbulence. McLaurin is the security blanket for Daniels and for Mariota alike: third downs, red zone, broken plays, he is where the ball goes when it has to go somewhere. If the Colts are smart, they double him and dare someone else to beat them. If they're not, McLaurin will do what he always does.
A rivalry with history
The 33rd all-time meeting: Indianapolis leads the series 21–11. The last one was Week 8 of 2022, when Washington walked out of Lucas Oil Stadium with a 17–16 win. These teams rarely meet, so there's no rivalry rhythm — just two 1–2 teams who understand that in a 17-game season, the swing games against your peers decide everything.
Previously's call
The quarterback fog makes this fascinating, but the Colts are the better, deeper team, and the run game is the great neutralizer in strange environments. Expect a choppy London morning that gets decided late. Colts 23, Commanders 20 — Indianapolis covers with a fourth-quarter kick, and the team that handled the trip better heads into the heart of the season with its confidence intact.
How to watch
Dave Pasch, Kurt Warner and Jason Kelce on the call for NFL Network. Commanders are the designated home team.